Weak 10-Year Auction Spurs Yield Volatility as Rate Cut Bets Grow
US Treasury yields surged to 4.24% following a poorly received 10-year note auction, with the bid-to-cover ratio slipping to levels last seen during 2023's botched sale. The 1.1 basis point 'tail'—the gap between expected and actual yield—signaled tepid demand, pushing the coupon to 4.25% rather than the anticipated 4.125%.
Despite the auction's weakness, benchmark yields remain at December lows as traders price in Fed easing. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari's remarks about potential rate cuts gained traction after Friday's soft jobs report, with July payrolls and prior-month revisions missing forecasts.